by Dylan Fox
There is something that professional gamblers will never tell you - and that is that they hardly ever gamble. You will not find your seasoned pro putting ?50 on the 3:15 at Kempton because some bloke down the pub reckoned it would make him a few bucks. In fact, they never gamble - they play percentages.
Horse racing has had a dodgy track record of late. Kieron Fallon hardly graced the sport having ‘thrown’ a race that his horse seemed to have won easily. At the lower end of the spectrum, horse racing is full of dodgy deals, and when the stakes are low, the risks are high. If the winnings for a race are just 1000, then why not be a little more devious? They’ll never find out! I never put money on these races.
I do, however, focus on two races per year - and make sure that I am armed to the teeth with information about my shortlisted horses. How do I get to a shortlist?
Late on in the jump season, there is the Grand National - supposedly a lottery, and one that many people open a bookmaker’s account for, with the sole purpose of using it just for this one race. Now I have a tendency to go for the ante-post betting as soon as the list is published. There will be about 100 horses in the list, so here’s how I find my horse:
1. I forget about any horse younger than 8 or older than 12. 2. I eliminate all horses with more than 11 stone on their backs. 3. I eliminate any horse that has not run at Aintree before. 4. I favour any horse that has won at Aintree before - at the Grand National distance. 5. I favour any horse that is 9 or 10 years old.
Now, this might not work every time, but I’m playing percentages - I know that in 8 out of 10 cases, I will find a winner this way. Hedgehunter is a notable exception to this rule, but that was an exceptional horse - so you will need perhaps to look just over 11 stone. But the Grand National is NOT a lottery, as many people say it is. Do not pick with a pin - and do not go for the name! Go with this method and you’ll have a shortlist of five or six horses to work from at most.
I love the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp because it’s the final big race of summer, and I almost always find a winner! It’s consistent, it’s fair and it’s exciting - here’s how I find a winner:
1. I look for a French-trained horse. 2. I look for the winner of the Prix Niel, a month before the Arc. 3. I look for a lightly run horse, preferably with five or six runs under its belt. 4. I look for a horse that has run - and won - at Longchamp before. 5. I eliminate Derby winners.
There are many reasons why the Arc is so particular. It’s at the tail-end of a long flat season, so many horses are tired. Some horses are best at the start of the season, you’ll find them winning the Derby, perhaps. So look for a 3-year-old that has won steadily throughout the season, maybe having taken a few wins at Chantilly or Longchamp.
The racecourse of Longchamp is very specific and you must consider the wide bend and the long straight which can tire out the best horses. So you can use this method and come up with two or three horses - look at their form to separate them. That is how I came up with Hurricane Run, Rail Link, Sagamix, Sakhee, and so many others over the last ten years.
Take this approach for other races - study the past winners, study the past itself, and you will be able to project into the future what will happen seven or eight times out of ten. And then, you will be a professional gambler like the very best of them!
About the Author:
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