Oct 19
2008Worldwide Auto Sales 2008: The Strong Get Weaker
Filed Under (Cars and Trucks) by Bertel Schmitt on 19-10-2008
Tagged Under : Cars and Trucks
A more or less awful outlook for auto sales. By Bertel Schmitt, CEO Sinamotive Group (HK) Limited.
J.D. Power and Associates, the trusted authority when it comes to unbiased worldwide automotive data, has released their forecast for worldwide 2008 auto sales. Bottom line: It will be bloody.
All corners of the world will be affected by the slowdown. But not all corners will see equally dismal sales. The mature and saturated markets will be hit hardest by a sudden lack of appetite for new cars. Emerging markets will continue to grow - albeit at a much slower pace. Parts and services should gain as people hold on longer to their cars.
Will emerge stronger: China. The booming Chinese light vehicle market (which includes passenger vehicle and light commercial vehicle segments) will slow in 2008, yet, it will still grow at very attractive rates. J.D. Power thinks Chinese light vehicle sales will come in at 8.9 million units in 2008. This would represent an increase of 9.7 % compared to 2007. That number will be more subdued than the 24.1 % growth achieved in China in 2007. But many U.S. and European auto executives would sell their first-born for these growth rates. (Side note: The Indian light vehicle market will remain tepid. 1.8 million units are expected to change hands in 2008, nearly the same as in 2007. India has approximately the same population as China, making 1.8 million units pretty much a non-event when measured on a global scale.)
Bloody nose, but doing ok: Europe. Light-vehicle sales in all of Europe are expected to drop to 21.3 million units in 2008. This would be a rather benign decline, 3.1 % compared to 2007. For the more mature Western part of the European market, J.D. Power projects a reduction to 15.6 million units sold, 7.5 % less than 2007. Eastern Europe will keep on growing. Eastern European unit sales should be around 5.8 million in 2008, a remarkable (given the worldwide state of affairs) jump of 11.3 % over 2007. However, growth in Eastern Europe should also slow considerably.
Basket case: U.S. J.D. Power and Associates forecasts total U.S. new light-vehicle sales to nose dive to 13.6 million units in 2008, a 16 % fall from the 16.1 million units sold in 2007. For 2009, J.D. Power and Associates sees even lower numbers: 13.2 units. J.D. Power says there is a (downward) margin of error of 200,000 units, depending on how the 4th quarter of 2008 may develop.
Net/Net: J.D. Power doesn’t think that the market will recover anytime soon. Jeff Schuster, executive director of automotive forecasting for J.D. Power and Associates, said that “any truly pronounced recovery appears to be more than 18 months away.” And it may get worse before it gets better: “While the global automotive industry is clearly experiencing a slowdown in 2008, the global market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse,” Schuster said. “While mature markets are being impacted more severely than emerging markets, no country or region is completely immune to the turmoil.”
No crisis for after-sales. J.D. Power observed that “approximately two-thirds of the decline in retail sales can be attributed to consumers delaying vehicle purchases.” People are keeping their vehicles longer. Keeping their vehicles longer means more parts and labor are needed to keep the vehicles running. Buying a new car or even a used car can be delayed. But if the brakes fail, it’s either having the brakes fixed, or walk. One of the few recession proof segments in this collapsing economy appear to be parts and services.
